Why Is The First Round The Most Important? Gaethje vs. Oliviera
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For a world champion to create a legacy and gain respect, there are two things that he must set out to do in every fight. Firstly, he must dominate every fight in such a manner that he looks well-above the rest of the competitors in the division. He must set a precedence to skillfully disarm every opponent and come out on top every time.
The second thing a champion must set out to do it defend their belt.
Which brings us to the point of this article.
Justin Gaethje sets out to dethrone defending champion Charles Oliviera by any means necessary. Like many of Charles’ last opponents, Justin is no easy adversary. His skills have improved dramatically and now complement his physical attributes perfectly. However, there are still glaring weaknesses for both men, which they should look to exploit.
In this article, we will attempt to break down the two’s abilities in order to give a faint idea of some of the keys to victory.
It is no secret that Justin Gaethje is a very formidable combatant; his striking not only at range, but in the pocket, is especially deadly. While he has been known to brawl, ever since he has worked with coach Trevor Whitman, his shot placement, timing, and patience has improved to a point of concern for the current champion.
A good fight to help accentuate this point would be his fight against Barboza.
Gaethje sets a good precedence early, blasting a few legs kicks.
For a fighter like Gaethje, this is detrimental to any gameplan. Not only are they debilitating, as he not only blasts your thigh but also your calf. For a veteran thai fighter, this might not be an issue as checking them is well-drilled in the culture. However, for a fighter like Oliviera who tends to move flatfooted before advancing, they can be very helpful.
There are a few kickbacks to naked leg kicks, of course. Firstly, they are very easy to counter; for a power puncher, in fact, they are are a wet dream to deal with.
Exhibit A:
While this might not present such a present issue against Gaethje as it did against Corey, it is still something that should be avoided, as Oliviera has seemingly developed a crispy short hook at range. On top of that, he holds a four inch reach advantage against the contender, which will help him pick off Gaethje with jabs.
However, this shouldn’t be done with a light heart, as Gaethje’s counters very well, and with heavy hands.
Take a look at this clip for instance. He blocks well with his hand at the start against Edgar, but leaves the right side of his face open and misses the straight, allowing a successful right hand to counter against the chin. While I have more faith in his chin at a higher weight division where he looks fresher, against a fighter like Gaethje, this could lead to a death sentence.
A component of his game that I believe Charles does well is investing in body work. Whether it’s knees in a collar tie, or advancing with teeps, he makes an attempt to wear the tank. I believe that will be a key to helping him wear out Gaethje early. However, advancing into the pocket with Gaethje will open him up to short hooks or even a short uppercut, which shown below against Chandler, will very much decrease Charles’ chances of victory.
One of the techniques Charles implements well however, is the body lock takedown or clinch. By doing this, he can not only make sure to neutralize any power coming in, but he can also protect his chin by driving his head into Gaethje’s shoulder or sternum. This means that even if he can’t secure the takedown against Gaethje, he’s able to use the time to drain Gaethje by forcing him to bear his weight, or simply recover any stamina and make adjustments in the grappling department.
That’s not to say Gaethje will be easy to take down by any means. His NCAA Division I wrestling accolades speak for themselves. However, it will be interesting to see how Gaethje fairs to a more submission-based grappling type. His Khabib fight showed that he is still suspectible to takedowns at the high level, especially when mixed well with striking and good hand positioning.
The first round is important for many reasons. It gives us a chance to see how much Charles’ striking defense and recovery has improved from his previous fights. While not as explosively powerful as Chandler, nor as volumetrically pressuring as Dustin, Gaethje exhibits a technical precise striking style complemented with one-punch power that does not bode well for most fighters. Should he land clean, it could be a rough night. However, this does not leave Gaethje in the clear.
Charles unique style of wrestling-grappling in the division is definitely one that Gaethje will not have a lot of experience with. Someone who can snatch legs, necks, arms, or even backs from clinches. On top of that, with growing technical skill, Charles will be very mindful of his advantages at range and surely look to use the jab efficiently. And if Gaethje grows restless and attempts a brawl, Charles’ sneaky short punches might catch Gaethje early.
Neither fighter can afford to let the first round slip past them.
So what do you think happens? Does Gaethje wilt from the experienced grappler in Charles? Or does Charles make a mistake and get caught early?
Let me know what you think!
